Are Israelis really leaving the country? A true look at the numbers

A quick look at the government’s new population data at the end of 2024 gives the impression that record numbers of Israelis are leaving the Jewish state. However, there is more to the spike in numbers than is immediately apparent.

“Facts are stubborn,” Mark Twain once said, “but statistics are more pliable.” The data given by Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics implies that an unusually large number departed the country in 2024, and many may assume the mass exodus was war-related. Indeed, polls from October 2024 showed that many were considering making the move to find refuge and better job prospects overseas.

The Times of Israel reported in October that almost a quarter of Israeli citizens were considering a move, according to research conducted by Katar Insights and Israel's Kan public broadcaster. More than just being a passing thought, a significant proportion of those weighing the possibility have begun taking practical steps to do so – looking into housing and job opportunities.

A large majority of Israelis (67%) had no such plans and of the 23% that expressed a desire to leave, many were planning to return after some time. Indeed, 1% had already left and returned. But how many actually carried out their plans in the end?

According to the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), 82,700 Israelis were registered as having left the country over the past year, up from around 55,000 the year prior. Compared with an average of 35,000 leaving each year in the previous decade, the number indicates a sharp increase.

Certainly, the Israeli economy has taken a big hit due to the war. Thousands of evacuated families have had to endure many months in hotels away from their homes. Communities in both the north and south have been repeatedly awakened in the middle of the night by air raid sirens, either due to rocket and missile attacks launched by Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Houthis in Yemen (and even some by Hamas in Gaza), so the urge to find a more stable and safe environment is understandable. 

Statistics revealed that the majority of Israelis who left in 2024 were those with the means to do so, primarily Israelis living in the more wealthy central districts. However, 28% of those who emigrated also came from northern communities and 15% from southern areas severely impacted by the attack from Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023. The Middle East Eye has cited reports that 23,800 have since returned.

Additionally, there was something in the recent CBS population figures that had not featured before – a way of counting heads to hit the historic milestone of 10 million.

Just ahead of the Jewish New Year last September, an impressive 9.9 million people were reported as being in the country, with expectations that the population would cross the ten million mark within weeks.

In order to secure that magic number by Jan. 1, a new precedent was set to include foreigners on extended stays. And after counting foreign workers, illegal immigrants and tourists in the country over one year as residents, it’s not surprising when more than usual leave. 

Taking this development into account, the emigration rate for the last year was still high. Yet, Israel’s population continues to grow steadily.

The Jewish state welcomed some 35,000 Jewish immigrants in 2024, and approximately 183,000 babies were born last year. Even with a total of 55,000 deaths, there was an overall natural population increase of 112,000 people, according to the Times of Israel.

If Israel were to adopt the Hamas-led Gaza Health Ministry's approach to reporting numbers, the country would be experiencing a genocide with 55,000 deaths – highlighting the critical importance of how statistics are presented.