First poll since Oct 7 attack shows Netanyahu government would secure majority if new elections were held

Many Israelis have blamed the current Netanyahu-led Israeli coalition government for its failure to prevent the Oct. 7 Hamas invasion and massacre of 1,200 Israelis and kidnapping of 251 people from southern Israeli border communities.

However, for the first time since the war began last October, if Israeli elections were held today, Netanyahu’s government would secure a majority and be re-elected as prime minister, according to a "Direct Polls" report published by Israel's Channel 14 on Sunday.

The poll indicated that Netanyahu’s Likud party would receive 31 seats in the Israeli Knesset if Israelis were to cast their ballots today. The opposition "National Resilience" party led by Benny Gantz, would reportedly receive 15 seats, the same number as the secular conservative "Yisrael Beytenu" opposition party, headed by Avigdor Liberman. The ultra-Orthodox Shas party, which is part of the Netanyahu government, would also receive 15 seats.

Opposition leader Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party would reportedly only receive 9 seats, whereas Yair Golan’s "The Democrats" party would receive mandates 10 seats. Furthermore, Likud’s coalition partner United Torah Judaism (UTJ) would earn 8 seats, Jewish Power would earn 6 and Religious Zionism, 5. The Ra’am (United Arab List) and the Hadash-Ta’al Arab list would each receive 5 seats.

Overall, the Netanyahu-led right-religious bloc would receive 61 seats compared to 49 seats for the center-left Lapid-Gantz opposition bloc. The two Arab parties would together receive 10 seats, however, they traditionally do not join coalition governments. Even if the two Arab parties joined the opposition, it would still only receive 59 seats and be two seats short of securing a minimum majority of 61 seats.

The new poll shows a significant increase in public approval for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. When asked who they believe is more suitable for the role of prime minister, 52% of respondents preferred Netanyahu over Benny Gantz (25%). Similarly, 54% favored Netanyahu over Yair Lapid (24%).

In January, two polls predicted that Benny Gantz’s party would become the largest, securing between 35 and 39 seats, while Netanyahu’s Likud party was projected to fall to 16 seats. At that time, only 29% of respondents preferred Netanyahu as prime minister, compared to 42% who supported his rival Gantz.

Just a month ago, 70% of the Israeli public wanted Netanyahu to step down from politics due to dissatisfaction with his government’s handling of the war. At that time, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett was considered the most favored candidate to become the next Israeli leader.

The significant shift in public support for Netanyahu and Likud is likely linked to Israel's recent military achievements against Hezbollah, Iran's key terror proxy in the Middle East. In mid-September, an explosion of around 4,000 pagers across Lebanon and Syria, used by Hezbollah operatives, resulted in dozens of deaths and hundreds of injuries. While Israel did not officially claim responsibility for the attacks, many attribute the operation to the Jewish state.

A few days later, the Israeli military eliminated most of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force commanders, including its top commander Ibrahim Aqil, in an aerial strike in southern Beirut.

Last Friday, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) eliminated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and some 20 top Hezbollah terrorists in a massive bomb attack on Hezbollah’s subterranean headquarters in southern Beirut.

Nasrallah who had previously survived multiple Israeli assassination attempts, was widely considered the linchpin in the Iranian regime’s terrorist proxy network. While Hezbollah is still a serious threat, it has been severely damaged by the Israeli military offensive operations.

This week, Netanyahu’s former political rival Gideon Sa’ar announced that he would rejoin the government, providing an additional boost to Netanyahu's standing.

Netanyahu's current rise in the polls is also attributed to a prevailing belief among Israelis that this is not the right time for new elections. Around 54% of the public reportedly feels that holding elections now would weaken Israel’s deterrence while facing threats from the Iranian and its various regional terror proxies.