Israel is ‘likely’ to attack Iranian nuclear facilities within the next 6 months, US intel estimates

Israel is considering carrying out “significant” strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, possibly even within the coming six months, according to two separate reports by major U.S. newspapers on Wednesday.

The new Trump administration had so far signaled its willingness to negotiate over a new nuclear deal before drawing on the military option.

However, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei several days ago seemed to reject the notion that negotiations are possible, saying it would be “not smart, wise, or honorable,” to talk about the issue with the U.S.

“After Khamenei’s remarks where he cast doubt on negotiations with the U.S., the American government is sending a message to Iran’s regime tonight with two articles in major newspapers disclosing how Israel is readying for a strike on [Iran’s] nuclear program in 2025,” commented Jason Brodsky, policy director for United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI).

According to U.S. officials who spoke with the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), U.S. intelligence estimates that Israel is considering “significant strikes on Iranian nuclear sites this year.”

The estimate is based on an analytical report created at the end of the Biden administration’s tenure, and a second one created at the start of the Trump administration.

According to the first report, Israel intends to take advantage of the current situation, including its near-total annihilation of Iran’s strategic air defenses and the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who Israel thinks is much more likely to support strikes against Iran than his predecessor.

U.S. analysts also think Israel fears that Iran’s nuclear program is approaching the threshold of no return and therefore, wants to strike soon.

In this case, Israel would need further U.S. support, including munitions like heavy bunker-buster bombs to be able to harm the sites, most of which are entrenched deeply under mountains, the WSJ added.

While largely confirming the WSJ report, the Washington Post (WP) in another story on Wednesday added that Israel is “likely” to strike within the coming six months.

Also citing the two intelligence reports, the second of which was compiled by the intelligence directorate of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Defense Intelligence Agency, the WP report specifies Israel’s likely targets as the Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities.

The WP report further revealed two potential strike options, both of which would require U.S. assistance like “aerial refueling as well as intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance.”

The first option would be a standoff attack, similar to Israel’s first direct strike on Iran that hit a radar site near the Natanz nuclear site. In this case, Israeli aircraft would fire air-launched ballistic missiles without penetrating Iranian airspace.

The second option is a “stand-in attack,” where Israeli aircraft would penetrate Iranian airspace to drop bunker-buster bombs on the nuclear sites.

Despite Israel’s efforts, U.S. analysts estimate that such an attack would not be enough to fully destroy the regime’s nuclear program, only setting it back by several months at the most.

Despite reports that the Trump transition team was weighing preventative strikes against Iran, since entering office Trump has signaled his priority is to reach a better nuclear deal.

“Reports that the United States, working in conjunction with Israel, is going to blow Iran into smithereens, ARE GREATLY EXAGGERATED,” Trump stated in a recent post on his Truth Social platform. 

Brian Hughes, spokesman for the White House National Security Council, told the WP that Trump “has made it clear: He will not permit Iran to get a nuclear weapon.”

“While he prefers negotiating a resolution to American’s long-standing issues with the Iranian regime peacefully, he will not wait indefinitely if Iran isn’t willing to deal, and soon,” Hughes added.

Last week Trump reinstated his “maximum pressure” policy on the Iranian government.

“The disclosure that Israel is likely to strike Iran’s regime’s nuclear program in the first six months of 2025 dovetails with the window where the SnapBack mechanism is expiring. These reports appearing in public could bolster a credible military threat,” Jason Brodsky wrote.