Israel prepares for Assad regime collapse as clashes erupt within sight of Israeli border in southern Syria

The State of Israel is preparing for the possible collapse of the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, as Islamist rebel forces in northern Syria continued their lightning advance by capturing the city of Hama on Thursday and reaching the outskirts of Homs on Friday.

Meanwhile, new clashes erupted on Friday, partially within sight of Israel's border with Syria along the Golan Heights, as rebel groups seized control of several towns and military checkpoints in the Daraa province.

BREAKING:

New rebellion erupts against Assad in the Daras province in southern Syria, right next to the borders with Jordan and Israel.

Assad soldiers are either disarmed by the crowds or fleeing their positions. pic.twitter.com/Q9fhXaQUsu

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) December 6, 2024

On Thursday night, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened an urgent security assessment to discuss the rapidly unfolding events in Syria, Israel's northeastern neighbor. The IDF also stated that Defense Minister Israel Katz and IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi held a situational assessment with the army’s top brass.

“The IDF follows the events and is prepared for any scenario in attack and defense,” the army said. “The IDF will not allow a threat near the Syrian-Israeli border, and will work to thwart any threat to the citizens of the State of Israel.”

According to Israeli media reports, prior to the rebels reaching the outskirts of Homs and capturing towns in southern Syria, the IDF assessed that the Syrian regime was in real danger of collapse – a scenario that has become increasingly likely in recent hours.

NEW: Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-aligned opposition groups have begun a campaign to capture Homs after capturing Hama City on December 5. Syrian opposition groups are using negotiated settlements with localities to rapidly seize territory without fighting. (1/3) pic.twitter.com/p5HIRydfwA

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) December 6, 2024

Channel 12 reported that Israeli intelligence was surprised by the rapidity of the collapse of the Syrian army. “The Syrian military forces are not really fighting,” an Israeli official told the Axios news outlet.

“We don't think the regime is in immediate danger, but this is the biggest challenge for the Assad regime in the last decade,” he added.

On Thursday, al-Arabiya news carried a so-far unconfirmed report, citing an Israeli political source claiming Israel would “establish a buffer zone inside Syria” if the city of Homs fell to the rebels.

Israel shared its concerns with the Biden administration about the potential takeover of Syria, either by radical Islamists or by additional Iranian-backed militia forces, a U.S. official told Axios.

Syrian reports claimed on Thursday morning that Israeli airstrikes had destroyed caches containing advanced weapons in northern Syria to prevent them from falling into the hands of the Islamist rebel groups.

On Friday, the rebel groups led by the Islamist Hay’at Tahrir al-Shams (HTS), an ideological offshoot of al-Qaeda and ISIS, continued their rapid advance south and captured towns on the outskirts of Homs. Their presence threatens to cut off a major highway connecting the capital Damascus with the coastal areas, which serve as the Assad regime’s Alawite support base.

After renewed clashes that focused on northern Syria for almost a week, on Friday, the uprising reached areas near the Israeli Golan Heights. The clashes were so far centered in the area of Nawah, a city only 10 km (6 miles) from Israel.

According to Abdo Jabassini, an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University whose research focuses on southern Syria, rebels captured an army post west of Nawah, only 10 km (about 6 miles) from the border. In the city itself, armed groups imposed a curfew after “they stormed the police station, detained the police officers, and seized all weapons.”

#Syria: the capture of #Hama is being celebrated at the al-Omari mosque in #Daraa city.

This mosque is where the Syrian Revolution began, all those many years ago. pic.twitter.com/OaqyPIP8Nq

— Thomas van Linge (@ThomasVLinge) December 5, 2024

More clashes were reported in and around the province capital of Daraa, called the “Cradle of the Syrian Revolution” where the uprising began in March 2011. In the nearby town of Dael, video footage showed the flag of the revolution raised in a public square.

“Calls have been made for military conscripts in Daraa and Quneitra provinces to defect, with guarantees of safety and security extended to those who comply,” Jabassini wrote on 𝕏. “Multiple defections of members from security apparatuses have reportedly occurred in Daraa province.”

More clashes and uprisings took place in Ghabagheb, Jasim, Inkhil and several other towns in close proximity to the Israeli border.

Druze protesters in Sweida expressed their support for the rebel operations in #Aleppo, #Homs, and #Hama.#Syria

pic.twitter.com/8Rqs3HpvqR

— Hadeel Oueis 🌻 (@hadeelOueiss) December 6, 2024

A source from the Druze town of Suweidah, some 65 km (40 miles) from the Israeli border, told Kan News that the Syrian Druze community would not allow HTS to enter their area, known as the Druze Mountain.

“The international community and Israel in particular should pay attention to what is happening in southern Syria,” he said.

Channel 13 reported that Israeli representatives already sent messages to rebel leaders to keep away from the Israeli border.