Israeli capture of senior Hezbollah naval operative could impact war dynamic, Middle East expert assesses

The Middle East expert Amtazia Baram asserts that the Israeli military’s recent capture of a senior Hezbollah terrorist in Lebanon, could potentially dramatically change the war dynamic.

On Friday night, Israeli commandos from the elite Shayetet 13 unit captured Imad Amhaz, a senior Hezbollah operative in the terrorist militia’s naval unit, in the northern Lebanese town Batroun. Amhaz was reportedly transferred to Israel for interrogation regarding Hezbollah’s naval activities. 

Baram, professor emeritus at the Department of the History of the Middle East and Director of the Centre for Iraq Studies at the University of Haifa, assessed that the capture constitutes a serious blow to Hezbollah’s military capabilities against Israel. 

"They are trained and equipped by the Iranian Navy, known for its high professional standards. The small, fast vessels are designed for rapid raids along Israel's coastline, particularly targeting areas from Nahariya and Acre to even Haifa. Though such attacks have not yet materialized, the threat remains," Baram said in an interview with the Israeli news outlet Maariv. 

He believes that Amhaz's capture could potentially be force the Iranian-backed terrorist militia to change its war plans against Israel. 

"They must decide whether to alter their operational plans and relocate bases or gamble that the detainee won't divulge critical information," Baram argued. 

"The question remains where Hezbollah stores its equipment and what its future plans entail," he added.

"This arrest challenges Hezbollah's leadership, prompting a potential reassessment of their strategy. They may opt to shift base locations and develop contingency plans," the Middle East scholar said. 

The ongoing war between Hezbollah and Israel began on October 8 last year when Hezbollah launched an unprovoked aerial attack on northern Israel. Hezbollah justified its aggression by stressing its support for the terrorist organization Hamas, which a day earlier had massacred over 1,200 Israelis and kidnapped 251 people in southern Israel.

Over the past year Hezbollah has launched more than 10,000 rockets, missiles and drones into Israel. Dozens of Israelis have been killed and some 60,000 Israelis have become displaced from their homes as a result of Hezbollah’s hostilities. 

However, in September Israel launched a counteroffensive and succeeded in eliminating most of Hezbollah’s top leadership including its elusive leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Furthermore, Israel also delivered serious blows to Hezbollah’s military capabilities by destroying most of the terrorist militia’s missile and drone arsenal. 

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant estimated in late October that Hezbollah maintained only 20% of its prewar missile arsenal. 

“The achievements of the IDF in Lebanon are extremely impressive. We have eliminated the chain of command and control of Hezbollah, and I estimate the missile and rocket capability they have left is at 20%,” Gallant said. 

Baram argues that "to secure a ceasefire on favorable terms, Israel must ensure the Lebanese Shi'ite population pressures their leaders to end hostilities."

"A psychological approach is necessary—deploying suitable messages to make civilians recognize that continuing the conflict is intolerable. Convincing this public that life under Hezbollah's rule is untenable could spark internal pressure," he added.