Israeli defense ministry predicts difficult scenario in future conflict with Hezbollah

With increased tensions on the border between Israel and Lebanon, there is more discussion about a possible Israel-Hezbollah conflict.

According to a report in Israel Hayom, the scenario of a potential war between Israel and the Lebanese-based Hezbollah terror organization would cause an unprecedented level of damage to civilian infrastructure.

The Israel Defense Force's possible war scenario predicts 6,000 rockets could be launched into Israeli territory on the first day of a conflict, with a sustained rate of close to 2,000 per day after that.

This estimate represents a dramatic increase in the number of rockets per day compared to previous conflicts between Israel and the Palestinian terror groups in Gaza.

In the most recent conflict, Operation Shield and Arrow, the average number of rockets was 294 per day.

That number far surpasses the 588 rocket-per-day average seen in 2022’s Operation Breaking Dawn.

However, the number of missiles, which would far outstrip the ability of Israel’s Iron Dome aerial defense system to intercept, is not the only concern.

Hezbollah is able to acquire larger, more destructive rockets from Iran, and is not forced to build their own rockets using modified building materials, like the terror groups in Gaza. Those rockets are also believed to have greater precision in targeting abilities.

Defense officials are worried about Hezbollah’s ability to hit critical areas of infrastructure, leading to disruptions in power and food supply.

Those concerns have led Israel to seek a strategy of containment against Hezbollah. But some analysts say the strategy is insufficient because of Iran’s desire to have more engagement with Israel via its terror proxies like Hezbollah and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and the Hamas terror organization in the Gaza Strip.

Last week, former National Security Council Head Maj.-Gen. Giora Eiland warned that Iran may have decided that “the time has come to destroy Israel.”

Eiland said the increasing provocation by Hezbollah does not “necessarily mean we are on the verge of an immediate military confrontation”, however, he warned that “they see Israel getting weaker and weaker.”

Hezbollah is allegedly preparing for this future conflict. Just this year, the organization sent a terrorist to Megiddo, set up intelligence posts near the border, placed rocket launchers in agricultural fields, conducted a military drill simulating a raid on Israel’s north with its “Radwan Force”, marched armed soldiers next to the fence, built tents on the Israeli side of the border, and attempted to steal or destroy IDF cameras monitoring the border.

On Monday morning, former IDF ombudsman Maj.-Gen. Yitzhak Brik warned that the IDF may not be ready for such a conflict.

“We did not prepare for the difficult war that will be here in a few months or years,” Brik said on Israel's 103FM Radio.

“Our competence has been damaged for years,” he continued. “The IDF is not ready for war, and this is expressed in basic things. Look what is happening to us on the northern border. The IDF is afraid to react to a tent or the removal of a camera on the fence.”

Former IDF Hermon Brigade commander Kobi Marom told CBN News that the judicial reform crisis only adds to the threat risk.

“We can find ourselves in the middle of another conflict because of the motivation that they got from the tough argument inside the Israeli society,” Marom said. “So, it's not only hurting the army, the readiness and the strength of the army, it's really, really endangering Israel and might bring us on the verge of war.”