‘Last chance?' US envoy Hochstein set to arrive in Lebanon carrying ‘dramatic’ Israeli ceasefire demands

U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein is set to arrive in Lebanon to continue talks for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, in what Lebanon’s Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri described as “the last chance before the U.S. elections to reach a solution” to end the war.

A U.S. official told the Axios news outlet the Israeli demands given to Hochstein are “highly unlikely” to be accepted by the international community, as well as the Lebanese government, whose questionable legitimacy would be further undermined publicly.

According to the report, Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, a close confidant of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, sent a document containing the Israeli government's conditions for a ceasefire to Hochstein last week.

The document included the demand to allow the IDF to “actively” enforce any agreement in order to prevent a repetition of the situation following the last diplomatic agreement ending the Second Lebanon War in 2006.

Hezbollah simply ignored UNSC Resolution 1701, which demanded its disarmament and withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Instead, the terror group immediately began replenishing arms stockpiles and restoring its infrastructure throughout the country, eventually building up to a much higher level than ever before.

Israel now reportedly demands freedom of operation for the IDF and the Air Force (IAF) to enforce the terms of any potential treaty.

“We are talking about 1701 with increased enforcement. Our main message is that if the Lebanese army and UNIFIL do more, the IDF will do less and the other way around,” an Israeli official told Axios.

Hochstein is set to arrive in Beirut on Monday to meet with Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and the commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, Joseph Aoun.

Berri, the leader of the Amal movement and representative of Hezbollah in the negotiations, told Al-Arabiya on Sunday that the visit is “the last chance before the U.S. elections to reach a solution.”

He further claimed that all parties in Lebanon would accept Resolution 1701 as the basis for an agreement while stressing that they would not accept any amendments.

This was confirmed by Mikati in a separate interview with Al Arabiya, where he said Lebanon supports a ceasefire on the basis of Resolution 1701 with a focus on applying the sovereignty of the Lebanese state to areas held by Hezbollah.

However, he noted that Hezbollah remained part of his government while claiming that “Israel violated the resolution for fifteen years, thirty-five thousand violations were recorded by UNIFIL forces, violations at sea, on land and in the air.”

According to the Saudi A Sharq Al-Awsat newspaper, the Biden administration also opposes amending Resolution 1701. Instead, Axios said Hochstein seeks to strengthen the UNIFIL peacekeeping force, which U.S. officials admitted has failed to enforce Resolution 1701.

However, the newspaper also cited “Western sources” claiming that the focus on Hochstein’s visit will not be ceasefire talks, which don’t look promising at the moment, but on choosing a new president for the country.

General Aoun, commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, who would be responsible for disarming Hezbollah under Resolution 1701, is reportedly the Biden administration's preferred candidate for president, should efforts to resolve the current deadlock in choosing the country's highest office be relaunched.

Hezbollah has blocked the presidential election since the last president’s term expired in 2022.

Since the elimination of Hezbollah's top leader Hassan Nasrallah, numerous reports have suggested that the United States, France, and several parties within Lebanon, are interested in relaunching the process of nominating a presidential candidate, hoping to strengthen the Lebanese government vis-à-vis the terror group.