Make Israel Great Again? Trump's emerging administration and U.S.-Israel relations

As Donald Trump's return to the White House in 2025 takes shape through early appointment announcements, initial concerns about his commitment to Israel are being rapidly dispelled. The selection of staunchly pro-Israel figures like Sen. Marco Rubio as secretary of state, Rep. Michael Waltz as national security advisor, and Rep. Elise Stefanik – a passionate Trump ally, who rose to House GOP leadership – as UN ambassador, demonstrates what many Israeli analysts see as an administration potentially even more supportive of Israeli interests than Trump's first term.

Clear lines in a complex world

Trump's emerging administration signals a return to a more defined worldview where, despite regional complexities, clear lines are drawn between allies and adversaries. Unlike the more nuanced – some would say ambiguous – approach of the Biden-Harris administration over the past year, Trump's team appears set to embrace a worldview that recognizes what he sees as an enduring "axis of evil" threatening global stability.

Strong pro-Israel team takes shape

The Israeli media is describing the emerging Trump administration team as notably hawkish on Iran and strongly supportive of Israel's security interests. The anticipated appointment of Marco Rubio as secretary of state has been particularly well-received in Israel. According to Ynet reporting, Rubio's consistent tough stance on both Iran and China aligns closely with Israeli strategic priorities.

The selection of Michael Waltz as national security advisor has further reinforced this pro-Israel direction. Waltz, a former Green Beret with multiple Afghanistan tours, has used his military background to advocate for hawkish foreign policy positions on Iran and strong support for Israel since entering Congress in 2018.

As noted by Channel 14's Tamir Morag, initial concerns about the absence of figures like former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley have been overshadowed by appointments that suggest an administration so hawkish on Iran that, as Morag ironically notes, "Netanyahu will need to restrain America regarding Iran."

Strategic implications for Israel emerge as follows:

Regional dynamics

– The potential for expanded Abraham Accords without demands for Israeli concessions

– A more confrontational stance toward Iran and its proxy network

– Strong backing for Israel in international forums, particularly through Stefanik at the UN

– Potential revival of Trump's "Peace to Prosperity" approach, possibly including elements of the 2020 plan

Iran policy

Trump's administration appears poised to take a markedly different approach to Iran than the current one:

– Renewal of maximum pressure sanctions

– More robust response to proxy attacks

– Clear support for Israeli military operations without pressure for restraint

– Potential openness to Israeli military options against Iranian nuclear facilities

– Potential willingness to actively participate in combat efforts against Iran and its proxies 

It's worth noting that despite surrounding himself with Iran hawks and maintaining tough rhetoric, Trump's business background and past statements may suggest he may ultimately prefer high-pressure negotiations to military confrontation with Iran. This would align with his first-term approach where maximum pressure was used as leverage to force better terms than those achieved in the 2015 nuclear deal. The key difference this time would be that he enters such negotiations with a more experienced and hawkish team, potentially strengthening America's bargaining position.

Domestic and international considerations

Important factors shaping the administration's approach include:

– The need to maintain bipartisan support for Israel in Congress, particularly for security assistance

– Potential tensions between Trump's "America First" instincts and interventionist advisers

– The broader context of great power competition with China and Russia

Economic and security assistance

While Trump's support for Israel appears firm, Israeli analysts note two areas requiring attention:

– The future of U.S. military aid, given Trump's general skepticism toward foreign assistance

– The upcoming negotiations for the next memorandum of understanding on military aid

Regional security architecture

The administration appears likely to:

– Support expansion of regional security frameworks

– Back Saudi-Israel normalization without demanding significant Israeli concessions

– Take a harder line on Iranian naval provocations in the Red Sea

– Support Israel's military operations with fewer restraints than the current administration

Looking ahead

Churchill’s saying "You cannot reason with a tiger when your head is in its mouth" resonates with Trump's emerging team's worldview. While the Biden administration has often sought diplomatic dialogue even after provocations, Trump's appointees appear to understand that certain adversaries interpret diplomatic outreach as weakness rather than wisdom. 

Trump's emerging team projects a stark "don't try us" stance, in sharp contrast to the Biden administration's response to regional provocations which often amounted to "don't try us... please." This distinction extends beyond mere rhetoric. While the Biden administration has frequently addressed both aggressors and victims with calls to "settle down," Trump is surrounding himself with advisers who appear to have no hesitation in distinguishing between perpetrators and defenders. 

This is evident in the selections of Waltz, Rubio and Stefanik – all of whom have track records of clearly identifying and confronting adversarial actors rather than trying to stay neutral between both sides.