No large-scale offensive in Gaza? IDF chief Zamir warns about lack of manpower – report

Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir recently told the political echelon to “let go of some fantasies” regarding the war in the Gaza Strip and warned about the decreasing numbers of reservists reporting for duty.

Sources cited by Ynet News emphasized that “Zamir does not distort data for the political echelon,” and aims to reflect the situation in the field, despite the fact it doesn’t accord to the politicians’ plans.

When Zamir took over as IDF commander, several reports said that he was tasked with creating plans for a large-scale offensive to capture the complete Gaza Strip in a single swoop.

Zamir was also said to have reversed the policy of his predecessor, and expressed readiness for the IDF to hold Gazan territory for a longer time, a move that would necessitate the IDF to take an active role in distributing aid to the population.

The Ynet report didn't mention this plan explicitly but stressed that Zamir has been cautioning that, given the current situation regarding manpower and materiel, intensifying the operations is not realistic at the moment and that the current low-intensity ground operations in Gaza could continue for a while.

“The current reserve turnout rates in the combat units, which are around 60%-70% at best, are fully reflected to Prime Minister Netanyahu and the ministers, as well as the concern that this will be the case during a real offensive, if it comes,” sources told Ynet.

In addition, the IDF has pointed out the decreasing numbers of battle-ready tanks and APCs after months of war, as well as “the issue of ammunition stockpiles in relation to a possible strike on Iran, and the reignition of the northern arena.”

The report said that the military is currently carrying out a plan dubbed “Little Oranim,” which aims to capture and hold increasing areas of the Gaza Strip as a means to pressure Hamas into another hostage deal, which so far hasn’t worked.

However, the security sources stressed that Zamir nevertheless still intends to militarily defeat Hamas in a major ground maneuver, including large-scale encirclements and screening points for the population.

This could take many more months and even years and will require calling up tens of thousands of fighters for several more rounds of fighting.

Meanwhile, Hamas focuses on recovery and preservation of its abilities, while largely evading the advancing Israeli troops without fighting them directly. According to Israeli intelligence estimates, the terror group has some 20,000 troops available at the moment, including senior commanders like Mohammed Sinwar.

Despite Israeli countermeasures, the terror group also manages to resupply and rearm through smuggling operations. Israeli media reports last week said that over half, and up to three-thirds of its tunnel system, is still intact, including some smuggling tunnels under the Egyptian border.

In addition, the IDF has intercepted several attempts to smuggle weapons to Gaza from Israeli territory via drones.

Ynet reported that one such shipment recently reached Hamas, and that the IDF is checking whether the terror group is using dual-use materials that were air-dropped by foreign Air Forces in recent months for military purposes.

The IDF responded to the report by stating: “We will not address what was said in closed discussions. The IDF is preparing for a wide range of developments in the war, including reserve recruitment for the purpose of expanding the operation in the Gaza Strip. We will not detail these plans for obvious reasons.“