Who will rule Gaza after the war? New management of Rafah border crossing could give a glimpse into the future

Since the start of the Gaza ceasefire, Hamas has been busy demonstrating its continued power and control over the Gaza Strip, rendering futile the months-long discussions over who should be given the power to rule the enclave after the war.

Israel and its government have been particularly criticized for not presenting a detailed plan for what should happen in the Strip at the end of the war.

In a rare appearance on the Knesset platform Wednesday, Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer again rejected the demand that Israel should provide a plan, only noting that Israel is “working on it and I am a partner in this work regarding the day after in Gaza.”

He also reiterated his belief that any plan presented by Israel would be “dead on arrival.”

“Because this is an Israeli plan, we need to harness both the United States and the forces in the region, and I am very optimistic that it will be possible to reach management in Gaza the day after exactly according to the framework established by the Prime Minister. We will talk less and do more,” Dermer said.

Dermer is seen as a close associate and confidante of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and has reportedly worked as his personal representative on sensitive issues, like the plans for Gaza after the war.

Also Wednesday, the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) denied reports that the Palestinian Authority (PA) would be tasked with running the Rafah border crossing.

However, the PMO's statement provided a possible glimpse at the Israeli preferences for future governance in the Gaza Strip.

The PMO stated that “The report is incorrect despite efforts by the Palestinian Authority to create a false picture to the effect that it controls the crossing.”

According to the PMO, as part of the first stage of the ceasefire agreement, “IDF forces are positioned around the crossing and there is no passage without the supervision, oversight and advance approval of the IDF and the ISA.”

“The technical management inside the crossing is being carried out by Gazans not affiliated with Hamas, with security by the ISA, who have been managing civilian services in the Strip, such as electricity, water and sewage, since the start of the war. Their work is supervised by the international EUBAM force.”

This is the “European Union Border Assistance Mission for the Rafah Crossing Point,” which is tasked with supporting the PA’s border agencies “by mentoring and advising personnel … towards a modern, sustainable border management system in line with EU and international standards.”

According to the PMO, the PA is currently only involved in the border crossing’s management through providing stamps on passports, “which according to the existing international arrangement, is the only way Gazans may leave the Strip in order to enter, or be received in, other countries.”

“This procedure is correct for the first stage of the framework and will be evaluated in the future,” the PMO added.

The model of Israeli forces working with international groups and local, non-Hamas affiliated Palestinians has long been reported to be Israel's preferred governance model going forward.

However, Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman a-Safadi on Wednesday reiterated the official position of many regional countries, including Saudi Arabia and Egypt, that the PA should rule both Gaza and the West Bank after the war.

“We believe that the Palestinian Authority should accept responsibility for Gaza and that the Palestinian government should have an exclusive decision on war and peace and that there should be no armed militias in Gaza,” he said while talking at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

 “At the top of the order of priorities is that the cease-fire in Gaza lasts, to ensure that there is no return to military activity (war), now we need to flood Gaza with humanitarian aid to meet the immediate needs of the citizens and in Jordan we are doing our best, then we need to talk about reconstruction, a political vision and a long-term solution for the problem".

Notably, in rare comments made this week, representatives of Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) signaled their groups might be open to giving up at least part of their power over the Gaza Strip.

Hamas’ spokesman in Iran, Khaled al-Kadoumi, told the Russian news agency TASS that Hamas is open to the proposal to establish a committee of technocrats to manage Gaza, including responsibility for its reconstruction, distribution of humanitarian aid and organizing elections.

Al-Kadoumi added that the idea of military forces from Arab countries providing security in the Gaza Strip was not discussed.

PIJ’s deputy leader Muhammad al-Hindi meanwhile told al-Arabiya that his group was aware that international aid would not be forthcoming while terror groups continue to rule Gaza.

Reconstruction is among the most important factors determining who will rule the Gaza Strip, due to the sheer scope of destruction in the area and the power associated with control of the massive expected reconstruction funds.

According to recent UN estimates, the reconstruction work will cost $80 billion, 25 times more than after the last Gaza War in 2014. Some 69% of the buildings in the Gaza Strip are said to have been destroyed in the fighting, including about 90% of the housing units.

The task of clearing the 42 million tons of rubble covering the area alone is estimated to cost $1.2 billion and is expected to take up to 14 years.

UN estimates from January 2024 show the damage to civilian infrastructure to be at $18.5 billion, while the UN humanitarian office said last month the water supply had been reduced by over 75% compared to before the war.

Despite the multiple problems plaguing its administration in Judea and Samaria, the PA has declared itself ready to assume responsibility for the Gaza Strip, including provision of water and electricity.