10 reasons Hamas won’t be able to regroup in next 42 days after making ‘serious concessions’ - US experts

JERUSALEM, ISRAEL – It is highly unlikely that Hamas can use the 42-day ceasefire just negotiated to effectively regroup into a new and serious threat to Israel because they have made “serious concessions” in this deal.

That’s the assessment of a group of Middle East experts and military analysts at the American Enterprise Institute, a “think tank” based in Washington.

After studying the deal, AEI’s “Critical Threats Project” issued the following ten points late Thursday night: 

1. The Gaza ceasefire agreement, which the Israeli cabinet will vote to approve tomorrow, demonstrates that Hamas offered Israel several serious concessions.

2. The ceasefire agreement does not guarantee an end to the war. The short, 42-day first phase bans Israeli reconnaissance overflight of the Strip, but this would not give Hamas a serious military advantage at this time. 

3. Hamas cannot leverage this overflight ban because its military forces are destroyed as a serious fighting organization. Hamas will likely use the first phase to reorganize its forces and move cells around the Gaza Strip without Israeli aerial observation.

4. However, Hamas can only achieve limited reorganization and will be unable to regenerate itself during this period.

5. IDF operations have destroyed Hamas‘ military organization in the Gaza Strip by damaging the organization so badly it cannot be made usable without being completely rebuilt.

6. Hamas can execute limited reorganization tasks, perhaps even including efforts to organize isolated cells under some semblance of a military hierarchy.

7. The regenerative tasks that would create true, cohesive military units within a fighting organization would take months free of Israeli interference to complete.

8. Regeneration requires large-scale replacement of personnel, equipment, and supplies. The replacement of personnel to a capable level requires training, which is not possible without sanctuary and a period longer than 42 days.

9. The limited and inadequate regeneration and reorganization Hamas may be able to undertake will almost certainly be wholly insufficient to seriously impede the IDF from achieving any tactical mission it must complete, such as reoccupying the Netzarim Corridor if the ceasefire collapses.

10. Fighting could resume if negotiations for the second phase of the ceasefire fail.