Despite renewed focus on Gaza ceasefire, significant obstacles remain

On Sunday evening, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a security meeting to discuss the developing situation in Syria, as well as the renewed talks for a hostage-ceasefire deal with Hamas. 

Ceasefire negotiations for a deal between Israel and the Hamas terrorist organization in Gaza resumed via an Egyptian initiative, following the announcement of the Lebanon ceasefire deal. Egypt is currently hosting several Hamas leaders as part of the negotiations, as it attempts to convert foreign political will for an end to the conflict into a workable proposal. 

The previous temporary ceasefire involving a hostage release was more than a year ago, and saw the release of 105 civilians captured during the Hamas Oct. 7 invasion of southern Israel in exchange for a temporary ceasefire and the release of Palestinian political prisoners. 

Of the remaining 96 hostages, only around 60 are still believed to be alive. This was the message that Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer conveyed to President-elect Donald Trump in a recent meeting. 

Maj.-Gen. (res.) Nitzan Alon, the former head of the Missing and Captive Soldiers Division in the IDF – and the IDF’s point man for hostage negotiations – recently told Channel 13 that “the hostages’ condition is deteriorating, some of them are being starved.” 

Alon also said, “Some of the hostages are in a very bad medical condition, and the lives of some of them are in danger.” 

While Hamas has expressed openness for a ceasefire deal, telling Agence France-Presse (AFP) that it is ready to resume negotiations with Israel, several issues remain. 

One issue is that Hamas does not seem to have budged in its demands for a hostage release. 

In a recent statement of willingness to “cooperate with all ceasefire efforts,” Hamas restated its principal demands for the release of hostages: a ceasefire, the withdrawal of all IDF troops from the Gaza Strip, the return of evacuated Gazans to their homes, and a prisoner exchange. 

It seems unlikely that these terms will suddenly become acceptable to the Israeli coalition government which has rejected them up to this point. 

While the IDF leadership assesses that more pressure could be brought on Hamas, now that the ceasefire in Lebanon has removed a significant Hamas ally from the battlefield, at the same time, the IDF also believes that increased military pressure in Gaza is likely to result in the killing of hostages by Hamas terrorists. 

A senior military official recently told Ynet news that the Gazan public is also a possible source of pressure on Hamas, saying, “Hamas's military infrastructure is almost completely destroyed. The only thing left for them now is the public – and therefore, they are investing all the limited efforts they have in maintaining basic governing capabilities.” 

With the Gaza public becoming increasingly frustrated and upset with the situation in Gaza, this puts additional pressure on Hamas. 

However, Hamas still holds a significant bargaining chip - the hostages. It can threaten the hostages in an attempt to achieve compromises from the Israeli side. Hamas could also demand the release of Palestinian terror prisoners in exchange for the remaining hostages, especially since several of them, such as Edan Alexander, were active soldiers at the time of their capture. 

At the same time, Hamas is currently in meetings with Egyptian officials in Cairo, as well as representatives of Fatah, the dominant party in the Palestinian Authority. 

According to the Qatari al-Araby TV channel, Hamas leaders held two different meetings with those groups on Sunday night. Reportedly, Hamas discussed some form of a power-sharing agreement with Fatah in the Gaza Strip after the war. 

Reports in Hebrew media suggest that the Egyptian ceasefire proposal does not call for the full withdrawal of IDF troops from Gaza, allowing them to remain in the Philadelphi Corridor, the Netzarim Corridor, and parts of the northern Gaza Strip. The Egyptian proposal includes the establishment of an independent civilian committee to manage Gaza after the war, leaving security-related questions open for negotiation, according to a report by Al-Arabi Al-Jadid (The New Arab) newspaper. 

At the same time, the Israeli government has already stated its condition that Hamas cannot be a part of any future governance of Gaza. Additionally, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir threatened to take his Jewish Power party out of the coalition government if the current Gaza ceasefire proposal is accepted. 

In an interview with Army Radio on Sunday morning, Ben Gvir said that “the conditions that are currently being talked about are irrelevant to me – and the prime minister very much does not want Jewish Power to leave the government.”