It's a bird! It's a plane! It's a superweapon: How drones are reshaping modern warfare

For decades, Israel had prepared for every conceivable threat. The Iron Dome, a technological marvel costing billions of dollars, could track and destroy incoming rockets with pinpoint accuracy. Arrow missiles could intercept ballistic threats from thousands of kilometers away. David's Sling could handle everything in between. Israeli generals slept soundly, knowing they had built one of the world's most sophisticated missile defense networks.

Then October 7 happened. In a devastating surprise attack, Hamas terrorists employed drones to disable crucial Israeli observation posts along the Gaza border, helping their forces infiltrate Israeli territory undetected. The attack, which combined drone warfare with paragliders and other unconventional methods, caught Israel's sophisticated defense systems off guard. The military establishment that had prided itself on anticipating every threat now faced a stark new reality.

But this was just the beginning. On a crisp morning in late 2023, at a military base near Tel Aviv, radar operators watched helplessly as a small, commercially available drone – worth perhaps a few hundred dollars – evaded millions of dollars worth of air defense systems. The drone, barely larger than a dinner plate, zigzagged through the sky at low altitude, its plastic frame barely registering on radar.

Fighter jets scrambled to intercept it but couldn't fly slow enough to engage. Surface-to-air missiles designed for much larger targets struggled to lock on. The drone eventually crashed into an empty field, but the message was clear: Israel's mighty defense umbrella had a hole in it, and its enemies had found it.

This scene would repeat itself countless times as Israel found itself at the forefront of a new kind of war.

From Lebanon's southern border, Hezbollah launched increasingly sophisticated drone swarms that could penetrate advanced air defenses.

From Gaza, Hamas deployed modified commercial drones for both surveillance and attacks.

From Yemen, thousands of kilometers away, Houthi forces demonstrated their ability to strike deep into Israeli territory with advanced drones.

Meanwhile, Iran's direct involvement in drone attacks added yet another layer to an already complex aerial threat landscape.

The convergence of these threats marked more than just an escalation - it represented a fundamental shift in modern warfare. Non-state actors, equipped with relatively inexpensive drone technology, had found a way to challenge one of the world's most sophisticated military powers. The attacks came from every direction, at all hours, forcing Israel to confront a type of warfare it had helped pioneer but now struggled to counter.

The evolution of drone warfare: A year of unprecedented challenges

The sophistication of drone attacks escalated dramatically throughout 2023 and 2024. Hezbollah's arsenal expanded from simple surveillance drones to complex attack platforms capable of carrying significant payloads.

Their tactics evolved into coordinated swarm attacks, where multiple drones approached from different directions and altitudes, overwhelming traditional air defense systems. Some drones were equipped with advanced navigation systems that could operate even in GPS-denied environments, while others carried sophisticated electronic warfare packages capable of jamming communication systems.

By July 2024, the threat reached new levels when Houthi forces in Yemen demonstrated their ability to strike Tel Aviv with drones launched from over 2,600 kilometers away. These weren't crude weapons - they were sophisticated platforms capable of autonomous navigation and precision targeting. The attack resulted in civilian casualties and exposed vulnerabilities in even the most advanced air defense networks.

In October 2024, Hezbollah executed their most devastating drone strike yet, targeting the IDF Golani Brigade's base near Binyamina with a coordinated attack that combined drones with conventional artillery. The attack killed four soldiers, wounded 58 others, and demonstrated how drone warfare could magnify the effectiveness of traditional military assets.

The technical evolution of terror drones

The drones employed against Israel ranged from modified commercial quadcopters costing a few hundred dollars to sophisticated military-grade systems worth millions. Hamas operators in Gaza demonstrated ingenuity in converting civilian drones into lethal weapons, adding improvised explosive devices and developing custom control systems that could resist electronic warfare countermeasures.

Hezbollah's drone units operated even more advanced systems, many supplied by Iran, including platforms capable of carrying precision-guided munitions and conducting electronic warfare operations.

The transformation of commercial technology into military threats posed particular challenges. Consumer drones modified for military use proved difficult to detect due to their small size and largely non-metallic construction.

Their electric motors produced minimal heat signatures, making them hard to track with traditional infrared detection systems. Some were equipped with commercially available autopilot systems that allowed them to fly pre-programmed routes without radio communication, rendering traditional jamming techniques ineffective.

The impact on Israeli society and military operations

Since Oct. 7, 2023, Israel has confronted over 2,500 incidents involving missiles, rockets, and drones from various adversaries. The scope of these attacks has been staggering:

- Over 60,000 civilian residents of northern Israel evacuated due to ongoing drone threats

- More than 1,500 buildings suffered significant damage from drone strikes

- Multiple successful penetrations of Israeli airspace, including attacks on military bases and civilian infrastructure

- Strikes reaching as far as Tel Aviv and central Israel

The psychological impact has been profound. The constant threat of drone attacks has created a new kind of anxiety among the Israeli population. Unlike traditional rocket attacks, which follow predictable trajectories and trigger early warning systems, drone attacks can come from any direction at any time, often with little or no warning.

Even the Prime Minister's residence in Caesarea became a target, demonstrating the reach of these new threats. 

Technical challenges: The cat-and-mouse game of drone detection

Israel's military faced unprecedented technical challenges in detecting and intercepting these new threats. Traditional radar systems, designed to track larger aircraft and missiles, struggled with the unique characteristics of small drones. The drones' plastic construction and small size resulted in radar cross-sections sometimes smaller than birds. Their low flight patterns, often just meters above the ground, allowed them to hide in ground clutter – the radar reflections from terrain and buildings that typically mask low-flying objects.

The detection challenge was further complicated by the drones' flight characteristics. Unlike traditional aircraft or missiles that follow predictable trajectories, modern attack drones employed erratic flight patterns, rapid altitude changes, and advanced evasion maneuvers. Some drones demonstrated the ability to loiter for hours, shutting down their engines and gliding silently before reactivating for the final attack run.

Electronic warfare presented another layer of complexity. Many drones used encrypted communications channels that proved difficult to jam or intercept. Others operated with significant autonomy, following pre-programmed routes that required no radio communication with their operators. The most advanced platforms employed sophisticated counter-measures, including the ability to spoof their own location or transmit false sensor data to defensive systems.

Tactical innovations in the drone war

Both sides engaged in a rapid cycle of tactical innovation. Hezbollah's drone units developed "swarming" attacks where multiple drones would approach from different vectors, overwhelming air defense systems designed to track and engage individual targets. They also pioneered the use of "sacrifice drones" – cheaper platforms designed to draw fire and deplete defensive missiles before the main attack force arrived.

Israeli forces responded with their own innovations. New deployment patterns for air defense units created overlapping coverage zones that could better track and engage multiple threats. Mobile counter-drone teams equipped with electronic warfare systems were positioned to protect critical infrastructure and military installations. The IDF also developed new combat doctrines that integrated counter-drone operations with traditional air defense, creating a more comprehensive protective envelope.

The international dimension: Technology transfer and cooperation

The drone threat against Israel quickly became an international concern. The sophistication of attacks demonstrated the rapid proliferation of advanced drone technology among non-state actors. Intelligence reports indicated that Iran had established drone manufacturing facilities in several countries, creating a distributed production network that proved difficult to disrupt.

In response, Israel expanded its international cooperation on counter-drone technology. Joint development programs with the United States focused on new detection systems and counter-measures. European partners contributed advanced electronic warfare capabilities, while Israel shared its real-world experience in countering drone threats. This cooperation led to rapid advances in counter-drone technology, though the pace of drone innovation often seemed to stay one step ahead.

Silicon Valley takes aim: The F-35 controversy

When Elon Musk declared in late 2024 that human-piloted fighter jets like the F-35 were obsolete in the age of drones, he ignited a firestorm in defense circles. "It's idiotic to continue building them," Musk proclaimed on 𝕏, arguing that such aircraft would "just get pilots killed" as drone technology advances. His views echoed former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, who had recently dismissed tanks as "useless" and urged military planners to "buy a drone instead."

But veterans of actual drone warfare paint a more nuanced picture. While Ukraine's innovative use of modified commercial drones has revolutionized ground combat, military experts point out that drones cannot yet replicate the full capabilities of advanced fighter aircraft. The F-35 isn't just a fighter – it serves as a bomber, electronic warfare platform, surveillance tool, and battle management center. As one Lockheed Martin spokesperson noted, it remains "the cornerstone of joint all-domain operations."

The drone arms race has fundamentally altered military economics. When Hezbollah can challenge multi-million dollar Israeli armor with drones costing a few thousand dollars, traditional military procurement strategies demand reconsideration. A similar dynamic played out in Ukraine, where low-cost FPV (First Person View) drones proved devastatingly effective against Russian tanks worth millions.

Yet the suggestion that militaries should abandon traditional aircraft oversimplifies the challenge. Most military drones lack the range, survivability, and payload capacity needed for operations across vast distances or in contested airspace. As Stacie Pettyjohn, director of the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security, explains, "They are supposed to be cheap so that they can be purchased in large numbers. They lack the range, survivability, and payload capacity of larger, more expensive crewed jets."

Israel's counter-drone revolution: Building the digital Iron Dome

Israel's journey with drone warfare began in the crucible of regional conflict, long before most nations recognized the technology's potential. In 1982, Israeli forces achieved what many thought impossible – using drones to successfully neutralize Syrian air defenses in Lebanon. What started as simple reconnaissance platforms evolved into sophisticated weapons systems that would transform modern warfare. Today, Israel stands as a titan in the field, controlling nearly 60% of global military drone exports.

But success has bred new challenges. Israel now finds itself in an ironic position – simultaneously the world's leading drone innovator and increasingly its most sophisticated drone defender. The country's famous Iron Dome system, originally designed to counter rockets, has undergone rapid evolution to face a threat its creators never envisioned: swarms of low-cost, highly effective drones.

Israel's response to evolving drone threats showcases the kind of innovation born of necessity. The country has developed what experts call a "multi-layer drone defense concept" that combines cutting-edge technologies:

The first layer deploys advanced radar systems specifically designed to detect small, low-flying drones at ranges exceeding 20 kilometers. The second layer employs sophisticated electronic warfare capabilities that can jam drone control signals or even seize control of hostile drones. The final layer consists of kinetic interceptors, including both traditional anti-aircraft systems and new directed-energy weapons.

What sets Israel's approach apart is its integration of artificial intelligence. Israeli systems use AI to distinguish between birds, civilian drones, and hostile unmanned aircraft – a crucial capability in a region where commercial drone use is increasingly common. This technology has drawn international attention, with several European nations now seeking to adapt Israeli counter-drone systems for their own defense needs.

The future of warfare: Lessons from Israel

Israel's experience reveals a crucial insight: the proliferation of drone technology has fundamentally altered warfare. Small nations and non-state actors can now challenge superior military forces through innovative drone use, creating a new form of asymmetric warfare where adaptability matters more than raw technological superiority.

The path forward isn't about choosing between drones and traditional forces but integrating them effectively. Success lies in developing flexible systems that combine the strengths of both human-piloted aircraft and autonomous systems, creating a full-spectrum approach capable of meeting an ever-evolving threat landscape.