Meteorological report predicts increasingly extreme heat in Israel over the next 75 years

The Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) warned in a new report that Israel will likely face extreme weather events and excessive heat by the end of the century.

"The results indicate a high rate of warming in Israel that could reach up to 5°C by the end of the century, compared to the situation in recent decades,” IMS Service Director Dr. Amir Givati assessed. He warned that Israel would likely face more extreme weather over the next 75 years.

“The report also points to a sharp increase in the probability of extreme weather events: the intensity and duration of heat waves, extreme temperatures during the day and night and, on the other hand, an increase in heavy rain events and flooding. These trends require Israel to prepare for the climate changes that are already upon us,” Givati said.

The IMS report says its forecast is based on in-depth studies that analyze the frequency of extreme weather events in Israel, including protracted heat waves and an expected drop in rainfall by 20%-25% compared to current levels. The report predicts that Israel will become a warmer location due to continued greenhouse gas emissions.

Earlier this month, the Environmental Protection Ministry published an initial plan for climate change readiness, however, despite dire climate change warnings, key Israeli ministries, such as the Finance Ministry, National Security Ministry and Strategic Affairs Ministry, are reportedly slow in preparing for the future.

The IMS report predicts that temperatures in Israel will continue to rise by 0.5°C-0.6°C per decade, which is an increase compared to the average temperature changes in the past two decades. A temperature increase of 0.5°C per decade may not sound significant, however, longer heatwaves could make life unbearable and even life-threatening for large portions of Israel in the future, especially in the interior valleys and desert areas.

The Middle East region is particularly vulnerable to global climate change due to its already high temperatures, infrequent rainfall, water shortages and rising population.

In November 2022, at the COP27 global climate summit in Egypt, Israeli President Isaac Herzog warned that the Middle East region faces severe future climate consequences.

“With studies forecasting imminent, severe consequences for our region, the Middle East is on the brink of catastrophe,” Herzog said.

“Israel is prepared to lead the effort toward regional climate resilience,” the Israeli president said, adding that Israel was committed to "achieving net-zero carbon emissions and to transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy by 2050.”