Mixed signals regarding Saudi normalization with Israel after Trump envoy Witkoff meets with MBS

Both sides deny claims of agreement in recent Israeli report on peacetalks

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President-elect Donald Trump’s Middle East special envoy, Steve Witkoff, traveled to Saudi Arabia last week to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS).

This meeting marked the first official engagement between the two sides since Trump’s re-election in November.

Witkoff, a long-time Trump friend and confidant, is expected to oversee the Trump administration’s attempt to expand the Abraham Accords, with Saudi Arabia being the main focus.

Trump previously stated that he would like to see a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, as well as an end to the Gaza War.

According to a recent report in The Jerusalem Post, MBS told Witkoff that Saudi Arabia would consider moving forward with a normalization deal that did not include a concrete, irreversible timeline for Palestinian statehood, provided the Gaza War concludes and Israel commits to negotiations on a “pathway toward a Palestinian state.”

On Tuesday, Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported that Israel and Saudi Arabia had reached an agreement on the basic issues of normalization and that the two countries have held several negotiations recently aimed at achieving normalization and an end to the Gaza War.

Haaretz reported that the negotiations are being handled by Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, with the rest of the government and security cabinet remaining uninformed about the terms.

The Saudi government previously demanded that Israel recognize an independent Palestinian state, including this past September, when Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud announced the formation of a coalition of Arab states and international organizations aimed at achieving this recognition.

However, there have been mixed reports regarding the Saudi government’s true commitment to a Palestinian state. After a report in "The Atlantic" claimed that MBS said he did not personally care about the Palestinian issue, the Saudi government was forced to issue a denial that the crown prince made such a statement.

Since then, the Saudis have issued several harsh statements against the Israeli government, including unusually direct accusations from MBS that Israel is committing “genocide against the Palestinian people.”

Normalization between Israel and the Saudi Kingdom has been a declared goal for both Republicans and the opposing administration of U.S. President Joe Biden. It also continues to be a goal for the incoming Trump administration.

Following reports of significant progress in the normalization talks, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office released a statement on Tuesday evening denying that he had committed to a “path toward a Palestinian State.”

“The report about an Israeli commitment to allow 'a path toward a Palestinian state' is absolutely false,” the statement read. “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has acted, and is acting, against the establishment of a Palestinian state that would endanger the security of Israel.”

At the same time, Israeli reporter Barak Ravid posted on 𝕏, denying any significant breakthrough in the discussions.

🇸🇦🇮🇱A Saudi official told me no "breakthrough” has been achieved between Saudi Arabia and Israel regarding “normalization” of relations
🟢"The notion that the kingdom’s leadership has somehow modified its longstanding commitment to the establishment of an independent Palestinian…
— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) December 17, 2024

Ravid cited an anonymous Saudi official as saying, "The notion that the kingdom’s leadership has somehow modified its longstanding commitment to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state is equally baseless.”

Some Israeli analysts speculate that the two countries may be postponing the announcement of a peace deal to provide Trump with a major foreign policy win after his inauguration.

Trump had close relations with MBS during his previous presidency and is expected to resume discussions about a security arrangement with the Saudi Kingdom after taking office on Jan. 20, 2025.