Syria and Turkey set to discuss defense pact which could include Turkish military bases

After visiting Saudi Arabia on his first foreign trip as the acting head of the Syrian government, interim President Ahmed al-Shara’a is expected to visit Turkey on Tuesday. 

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will receive Shara’a at his presidential compound in the capital city of Ankara, according to a post to social media by Turkish head of communications Fahrettin Altun. 

Altun posted to 𝕏 an announcement regarding the invitation of al-Shara’a by President Erdoğan: 

“Transitional President of the Syrian Arab Republic, Ahmed Shara’a, will pay a visit to Ankara on Tuesday, February 4, upon the invitation of our President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan,” Altun wrote. 

“During the talks to be held at the Presidential Complex, the latest developments in Syria will be discussed in all their aspects, and the joint steps to be taken by the two countries for the economic recovery, sustainable stability, and security in the country will be evaluated,” he continued. 

After Altun’s post to X, reports in several Arab and international news sites claimed that the two leaders will also discuss a mutual defense pact, which could lead to the establishment of Turkish military bases within Syria and Turkish forces training the new Syrian military. 

Several sources familiar with details of the developing relations between the two countries told Reuters that the defense pact is not expected to be finalized on Tuesday, with the two leaders likely exploring possibilities. 

Turkey was a regular supporter of several anti-Assad forces during the Syrian Civil War, giving direct monetary and military aid to the so-called Syrian National Army, and aiding the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group of al-Shara’a to acquire military equipment. 

Since the collapse of the Assad regime, Turkey has taken a supportive role towards the new Syrian government, advocating for the termination of sanctions against HTS and its leaders, and requesting Western nations to remove the terror designation from al-Shara’a. 

Recently, al-Shara’a announced the dissolution of the anti-Assad militia groups from the Syrian Civil War, calling on all the groups to lay down their arms and join the new Syrian military in an official capacity. 

Reuters said that an official close to al-Shara’a told the agency that the two leaders will discuss the Turkish role in the "training of the new Syrian army, as well as new areas of deployment and cooperation”, but did not indicate where the Turkish military bases might be located. 

Ahmed al-Shara’a arrives in Turkey following a visit to Saudi Arabia, his first official visit as head of state for Syria. The choice of Saudi Arabia as his first official visit is seen by many observers as a signal to the Iranian regime that the new Syrian government prefers to align with Sunni elements in the region. 

A senior regional intelligence official, a Syrian security official, and one of the Damascus-based foreign security sources told Reuters that the bases under discussion would allow Turkey to defend Syria's air space in case of any future attacks.

While not specifying which threat the country is concerned about, some Israeli security analysts believe the statement is a reference to Israel’s airstrikes to damage Syrian military sites as the war was ending, along with recent strikes aimed at disrupting weapons transfers to Hezbollah along the Syria-Lebanon border. 

The interim Syrian president has warned Israel against violating Syria’s territory, and Turkish President Erdoğan has also become increasingly hostile to Israel.