Trump faces key decisions on Iranian nuclear program when he returns to office

Recent advances in Iran’s nuclear program will present U.S. President-elect Donald Trump with a difficult decision when he returns to office on Jan. 20 – whether to proceed diplomatically to convince Iran to abandon the pursuit of nuclear weapons or whether to support a military strike on its nuclear facilities. 

While several analysts expect Trump to attempt a return to the “maximum pressure” strategy of his first term, including sanctions to bring Iran in line, it is unclear whether he has enough time to allow sanctions to work. 

Despite the crippling sanctions the U.S. imposed on Iran in Trump’s first term, the Iranian regime continued to pursue nuclear enrichment and development. Even U.S. officials like Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently warned that Iran could quickly produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon in as little as one or two weeks.

In July, Blinken told attendees at the Aspen Security Forum that Iran “instead of being at least a year away from having the breakout capacity of producing fissile material for a nuclear weapon, is now probably one or two weeks away from doing that.” 

Although Blinken attempted to pin the blame on Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal, even while it was active, Iran still showed signs of hiding materials from nuclear inspectors with the International Atomic Energy Agency. 

In October, the Foreign Policy magazine warned that Iran was likely just one or two weeks away from producing enough fissile material for four nuclear weapons, and it would probably require only an additional eight weeks to produce six more.

The magazine argued that Iran already has a well-developed traditional ballistic missile production capability and, therefore, could produce all the nonnuclear components quite quickly. 

In December, a report released from the Office of the United States Director of National Intelligence (DNI) warned, “Iran now has enough fissile material to make more than a dozen nuclear weapons."

On Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron echoed those concerns. 

"We can clearly see that the challenge we face in the region and beyond is Iran,” Macron told a group of French ambassadors. “The acceleration of its nuclear program brings us very close to the breaking point. Its ballistic program threatens European soil and therefore our interests.” 

While Macron indicated his willingness to push for so-called snap-back sanctions, recent reports suggest that Trump is considering a direct military strike on Iran’s nuclear sites. 

While reports indicate that Trump would prefer to reinstate his “maximum pressure” policy, Trump himself appeared to affirm the goal of striking Iran’s sites during the final days of the campaign. He has also reportedly discussed such a strike with his transition team.

The Axios news outlet recently reported that Trump might approve U.S. military assistance to an Israeli strike if the President feels that the time for diplomacy has passed. 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that he and President-elect Trump see eye-to-eye on the Iranian nuclear threat.

The Israeli Air Force has already trained for such a strike and with the removal of air defense systems in both Syria and Iran, its pilots would have an open corridor for attacking Iran for at least the next few months. 

The Iranian regime, itself, has stated that this year will be an "important year" for its nuclear program.

Regardless, Trump will likely feel pressured to make the decision sooner rather than later.