Will Jordan be the next Syria? Understanding the Hashemite Kingdom's resilience

Much like candy, revolution becomes more appealing when you see others having it. Since the Arab Spring swept through the Middle East in 2011, both internal and external forces have cast hungry eyes toward Jordan, wondering if the Hashemite Kingdom might follow Syria's path to chaos. The fall of governments in Egypt and Tunisia, followed by the devastating civil war in Syria that led to the collapse of the Assad regime, has only whetted the appetite of some.

The question of Jordan's stability is an important one. The kingdom sits at the crossroads of the region's most volatile conflicts, sharing borders with Syria, Iraq, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. Its role as a buffer state and key Western ally makes its stability crucial for regional security. Yet this same strategic position exposes it to destabilizing forces from all directions.

The foundation of stability: Religious legitimacy

Unlike Syria before its collapse, Jordan has developed sophisticated mechanisms for managing internal pressures. The Hashemite monarchy has perfected the art of subtle repression and selective reform, allowing enough steam to escape the pressure cooker without letting it explode. But as Syria's experience shows, even seemingly stable regimes can unravel with devastating speed.

At the heart of this stability lies a crucial difference: the religious legitimacy of its ruling family. The Hashemites' direct descent from Muhammad provides unquestionable religious legitimacy within Sunni Islam, which represents over 90% of Jordan's population. This stands in stark contrast to Syria's Assad family, whose Alawite faith was viewed by many Sunni Muslims as heretical, creating an insurmountable legitimacy gap that fueled the Syrian conflict. This religious legitimacy, however, is just one pillar of stability; equally important is the kingdom's sophisticated security apparatus.

The security architecture

Jordan's security services remain remarkably professional and unified, drawing heavily from East Bank tribal families who view the monarchy as the guarantor of their privileges. Western support and professional training further strengthen this loyalty. This unity stands in marked contrast to Syria's military, which fractured along sectarian lines when protests erupted.

The Syrian conflict has directly impacted Jordan's security landscape, with an estimated 2,000-5,000 Jordanians joining jihadist groups in Syria. These battle-hardened fighters, many from economically depressed areas like Ma'an, Zarqa, and Russeifa, pose an ongoing security concern. However, Jordan's intelligence services have proven adept at monitoring and containing threats through precise, measured responses. This was demonstrated in 2016 when ISIS militants attacked a border post—the response was measured but effective, targeting only militant cells rather than employing Syria's indiscriminate retaliation approach.

The international safety net

Unlike Syria, which found itself increasingly isolated before its civil war, Jordan has cultivated a robust network of international support. The United States provides approximately $1.7 billion annually in combined military and economic assistance. Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have poured billions into Jordan's economy through direct aid and investment projects.

A telling example occurred during the 2018 economic protests. When thousands took to Amman's streets protesting austerity measures, Gulf states quickly arranged a $2.5 billion aid package to help Jordan stabilize the situation. Syria's Assad, facing similar protests in 2011, had no such economic safety net to fall back on. Among Jordan's crucial international relationships, perhaps none is more complex or strategically significant than its partnership with Israel.

The Israeli-Jordanian paradox

The relationship between Jordan and Israel resembles a layer cake of contradictions. At the surface lies the formal peace treaty, marking one of Israel's few diplomatic achievements in the Arab world. Beneath this veneer, King Abdullah II regularly calls for a Palestinian state in Judea, Samaria, and Gaza, a stance that often creates diplomatic tensions with Israel.

Yet deeper still lies a bed of pragmatic cooperation. Jordan serves as a crucial partner in intelligence sharing and counter-terrorism efforts, particularly regarding Iranian threats. Israel provides Jordan with vital water resources, not as charity but as a strategic investment in maintaining the kingdom's stability. For Israel, Jordan's stability represents a critical national security interest, serving as a vital buffer against Iranian influence and potential Palestinian territorial expansion.

Managing political Islam: A delicate balance

Jordan's relationship with Islamist movements tells a remarkable story of political adaptation and survival. When the Muslim Brotherhood established itself in Jordan in 1945, it initially served as a loyal ally to King Hussein, standing firmly with the monarchy against leftist and nationalist threats during the turbulent 1950s and 1960s. This loyalty earned them unprecedented privileges, including the right to operate freely when other political groups were banned.

The late 1970s marked a turning point, as regional developments strained the relationship: Jordan's tepid opposition to Sadat's peace initiative with Israel, King Hussein's backing of the Iranian Shah, and the monarchy's support for Saddam Hussein against Iran all pushed the Brotherhood toward a more confrontational stance. Yet, unlike in Syria where Islamist opposition turned violent, Jordan's Brotherhood chose a path of peaceful political engagement.

Today, the Islamic Action Front (IAF), the Brotherhood's political wing, holds 31 out of 138 parliamentary seats—their strongest showing in 35 years. The monarchy's sophisticated approach extends to Hamas as well. While decisively expelling Hamas leadership in 1999, Jordan maintained quiet channels with the group, recognizing its influence among the kingdom's substantial Palestinian population.

However, the rise of Salafism presents a more fundamental challenge. Unlike the pragmatic Muslim Brotherhood, these groups advocate for a more literal interpretation of Islamic texts and often reject democracy as un-Islamic. With an estimated 6,000-7,000 followers, they call for a complete transformation into a strictly Islamic state, presenting a unique challenge to Jordan's careful balancing act.

The economic pressure cooker

Jordan's economic pressures mirror those that helped trigger Syria's collapse, but with crucial differences in management. Youth unemployment hovers around 30% nationally, reaching 50% in some areas. The presence of 1.3 million Syrian refugees strains public resources, costing an estimated $3 billion annually. The public debt exceeds 90% of GDP.

The kingdom's response to these challenges has been multifaceted. Special economic zones in Aqaba and Mafraq have attracted foreign investment and created employment opportunities. The government has implemented targeted subsidies to maintain social stability while gradually reducing overall subsidy burdens. Educational reforms focus on technical training and entrepreneurship to address youth unemployment. Development projects in rural areas aim to prevent economic grievances from feeding into political unrest.

Despite these efforts, challenges persist. The privatization of state enterprises has met resistance from public sector workers. Energy dependency continues to strain the budget despite renewable energy initiatives. However, unlike Syria, Jordan maintains crucial international support to weather these challenges, with strategic relationships providing essential backing for economic reforms.

Evolution or revolution?

Jordan's stability rests on multiple pillars: religious legitimacy, sophisticated security apparatus, international support, and careful management of political Islam. While these foundations remain strong, the kingdom faces significant challenges ahead. Regional instability, refugee pressures, and economic constraints demand continued attention and reform.

The Jordanian people, having watched the Arab Spring unfold across the region, seem to understand that revolution's initial sweetness often gives way to a bitter aftertaste. The price of that momentary revolutionary sugar rush – visible in Syria's devastation – has proven far too steep. The real challenge for Jordan isn't preventing a Syrian-style collapse but managing the chronic pressures that could eventually overwhelm even this most resilient of Arab monarchies.