Report: Remaining Hamas forces estimated at 20,000 fighters, exceeding initial projections

Despite more than a year of military operations against the Hamas terrorist organization, Hamas has recruited between 12,000 and 23,000 new fighters, Israel’s Channel 12 news reported, and confirmed by the Jerusalem Post on Wednesday night.

According to the new report, Hamas currently commands a surprisingly high number of between 20,000 and 23,000 terrorist fighters if combined with the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) forces present in the Gaza Strip. Until recently, the Jerusalem Post reported, terrorist forces were estimated to be reduced to about 12,000 fighters.

In February, then-Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that Israel had effectively neutralized 20,000 terrorists in Gaza – approximately two-thirds – of Hamas’ entire fighting force, estimated to be around 30,000. In addition, Since the start of the war in October 2023, more than 6,000 Gazans have been detained by the Israel Defense Forces. Of these, approximately 4,300 remain in custody, while 2,200 have been returned to Gaza after being considered less dangerous.

“They have 10,000 dead terrorists and another 10,000 wounded who are not functioning,” Gallant said at the time. “It’s a blow that is eroding their ability [to fight], but you have to reach all the places,” he added.

“Before it launched this war against Israel on October 7, Hamas had an estimated 30,000 terrorists,” observed Mark Dubowitz, the CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a think tank based in Washington, D.C., in February.

“That fighting force has now been two-thirds depleted, with 10,000 terrorists eliminated and another 10,000 terrorists who are wounded and not returning to the battlefield. Hamas is fast running out of hiding places.”

On Wednesday night, however, sources told the Jerusalem Post that the October 2023 IDF estimate had been too low, and that Hamas forces at that time were probably closer to around 40,000 fighters. 

This means that the current Hamas force is most likely a mix of seasoned surviving terrorists from the original force and thousands of new recruits with little to no fighting experience. The unnamed sources have pointed out that many of the new terrorist fighters are of far inferior quality, as many of them are untrained minors. 

If the new numbers are correct, Israeli media estimates that around 9,000 Hamas terrorists are split between northern and southern Gaza, while the PIJ has an additional 4,000 terrorists divided between the two areas, and another 7,000-10,000 disorganized terrorist fighters spread out throughout the Gaza Strip.  

However, these numbers – based on the Channel 12 news report – would seem to contradict the facts presented to reporters in recent military briefings, indicating that most of northern Gaza is now cleared of terrorist fighters. This was underlined by the IDF’s recent statements on its operations in Jabaliya in northern Gaza.

“After two and a half months of fighting in just this one urban area, there are so many terrorists left. What does this tell us about how hard it is to clear other areas?” wrote Seth Frantzman, an FDD adjunct fellow.

“When this began it was already the third raid into Jabalia. I’ve actually been to this area twice with the IDF over the last year. The assessment was already that the ‘battalions’ in this area were dismantled a year ago,” Frantzman noted.

“When the IDF returned in October 2024 around 70,000 civilians had to be evacuated and several thousand terrorists were found there, many eliminated or detained. And yet it goes on and on, in just this one area,” he added.

The total number of terrorists in Gaza remains unclear, according to unnamed sources who spoke to the Jerusalem Post.